← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 40% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟥 | Marco Sportiello · ACF Fiorentina |
| 14' | 🟥 | Alessandro Murgia · SS Lazio |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 27' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | ⚽ | Martín Cáceres · SS Lazio |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 69' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 73' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 82' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 321.00 | 747.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1656.31 | 1697.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.66 | -0.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 51.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |