← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 74% | 81% | 1.32 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 19% | 13% | 5.04 | fair |
| Crotone win | 7% | 6% | 14.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Crotone |
| 65' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 73' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days |
| 656.00 |
| 1387.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1456.70 | 1929.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.53 | 6.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.96 |
| league points | 27.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.72 | 1.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |