← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Ghersini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 64% | 63% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.57 | fair |
| Benevento win | 14% | 17% | 6.79 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Atalanta BC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Musa Barrow · Atalanta BC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alin Toșca · Benevento |
| 67' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Enrico Brignola · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days | 199.00 | 686.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1476.05 | 1799.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.90 | -4.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.43 | 0.68 |
| league points | 14.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |