← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 52% | 49% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 22% | 27% | 4.50 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | 🟨 | Cristián Zapata · AC Milan |
| 64' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 165.00 |
| 1049.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1664.38 | 1851.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.91 | -28.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | 1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 52.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 69.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 2.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.83 | 2.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 22.09 | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.19 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |