← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 73% | 86% | 1.34 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 19% | 10% | 5.07 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 8% | 4% | 12.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Asamoah · Juventus FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Benedikt Höwedes · Juventus FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Benedikt Höwedes · Juventus FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1384.00 |
| 653.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1926.99 | 1567.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.66 | -39.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.70 |
| league points | 81.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.61 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | 1.78 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |