← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 64% | 68% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.19 | fair |
| Spal win | 12% | 11% | 7.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Riccardo Saponara · ACF Fiorentina |
| 44' | 🟨 | Everton Luiz · Spal |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mattia Vitale · Spal |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vitor Hugo · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.30 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 318.00 | 1231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 0.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1768.99 | 1584.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 58.11 | 28.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 69.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| league points | 50.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 26.99 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |