← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 50% | 55% | 1.94 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
| Crotone win | 20% | 18% | 4.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Iuri Medeiros · Genoa CFC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Arlind Ajeti · Crotone |
| 46' | 🟨 | Marcello Trotta · Crotone |
| 86' | 🟨 | Simy · Crotone |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marco Tumminello · Crotone |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 164.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1510.79 | 1463.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.98 | 11.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |