← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 43% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.35 | fair |
| Chievo win | 27% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 88' | 🟥 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 1291.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1575.47 | 1736.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.36 | 17.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.87 | 29.58 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |