← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 40% | 42% | 2.44 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.14 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 21' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Danilo · Udinese Calcio |
| 84' | ⚽ | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days |
| 1048.00 |
| 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1460.95 | 1500.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.53 | -40.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| league points | 29.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | -0.75 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |