← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 40% | 45% | 2.44 | value: +10% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Marco Fossati · Hellas Verona FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Rômulo · Hellas Verona FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Hellas Verona FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 676.00 | 1042.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1532.48 | 1582.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.63 | -18.11 |
| eye test v1 | -1.69 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.54 |
| league points | 22.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |