← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 59% | 51% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 32% | 4.16 | value: +32% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 18% | 17% | 5.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 26' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 37' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessandro Murgia · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 7.00 |
| 737.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1506.43 | 1711.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.63 | 14.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| league points | 33.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | -1.05 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |