← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 85% | 88% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
| Chievo win | 4% | 3% | 25.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 55' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Amadou Diawara · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 4 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 1042.00 | 1285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1849.88 | 1463.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.19 | -5.34 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| league points | 74.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.23 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.09 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.37 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |