← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 41% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.22 | value: +7% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 29% | 24% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 42' | 🟨 | Vasilīs Torosidīs · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Federico Di Francesco · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Crotone |
| 74' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Crotone |
| 86' | 🟨 | Blerim Džemaili · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Sebastien De Maio · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days |
| 646.00 |
| 920.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1453.70 | 1514.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.48 | 9.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |