β Serie A 2017-18 Β· Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 54% | 55% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.68 | fair |
| Spal win | 20% | 17% | 4.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | π¨ | Thiago Cionek Β· Spal |
| 39' | β½ | Thiago Cionek Β· Spal |
| 42' | π¨ | Andrea Petagna Β· Atalanta BC |
| 54' | π¨ | Manuel Lazzari Β· Spal |
| 75' | π¨ | Remo Freuler Β· Atalanta BC |
| 78' | β½ (pen) | Marten de Roon Β· Atalanta BC |
| 79' | π¨ | Jasmin KurtiΔ Β· Spal |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days |
| 1223.00 |
| 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1514.16 | 1693.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.19 | 5.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.50 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 26.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | β | 25.73 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |