← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 40% | 33% | 2.43 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 30% | 34% | 3.22 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.29 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszyński · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 645.00 |
| 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1571.19 | 1507.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.23 | -15.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 47.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |