← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 52% | 58% | 1.89 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.65 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 22% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 14' | 🟨 | Vitor Hugo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Vincent Laurini · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 75' | 🟨 | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 85' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Peres · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 25 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 310.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1800.07 | 1638.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.70 | 40.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| league points | 60.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.67 | — |
| state index | 1.03 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |