← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 75% | 78% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.30 | fair |
| Benevento win | 7% | 7% | 14.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Douglas Costa · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days |
| 188.00 |
| 1376.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1411.84 | 1924.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.94 | 9.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.72 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.88 |
| league points | 13.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.39 | 1.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |