← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento win | 54% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.03 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 22% | 24% | 4.51 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Gaetano Letizia · Benevento |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Del Pinto · Benevento |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Hellas Verona FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Gaetano Letizia · Benevento |
| 66' | ⚽ | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
| 68' | 🟨 | Gianfilippo Felicioli · Hellas Verona FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 3 |
| 15 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 25 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days |
| 185.00 |
| 672.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1393.25 | 1474.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.27 | -3.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -1.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.80 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.34 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -13.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 1.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |