← Serie A 2017-18 · Tue, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 43% | 47% | 2.29 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 27% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Udinese Calcio |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 44' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 56' | 🟨 | Vitor Hugo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Riccardo Saponara · ACF Fiorentina |
| 71' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 2.00 |
| 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1519.47 | 1625.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.78 | 31.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 33.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |