← Serie A 2017-18 · Tue, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.42 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 19% | 19% | 5.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Marco Sau · Cagliari Calcio |
| 53' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · Genoa CFC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marco Andreolli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davide Biraschi · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leandro Castán · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 153.00 | 1037.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1499.69 | 1477.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.83 | -17.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 31.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |