← Serie A 2017-18 · Tue, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 71% | 66% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.42 | value: +12% |
| Sampdoria win | 11% | 13% | 8.95 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 67' | ⚽ | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Atalanta BC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 84' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Duván Zapata · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days |
| 671.00 |
| 641.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1708.49 | 1555.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.17 | -51.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| league points | 47.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |