← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 79% | 85% | 1.23 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 6.75 | fair |
| Benevento win | 7% | 6% | 14.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟥 | Christian Puggioni · Benevento |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 23' | ⚽ | Danilo Cataldi · Benevento |
| 51' | ⚽ | Guilherme · Benevento |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gaetano Letizia · Benevento |
| 60' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alberto Brignoli · Benevento |
| 66' | ⚽ | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sandro · Benevento |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrea Costa · Benevento |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 6 |
| 14 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 729.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1698.77 | 1397.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.05 | -9.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 48.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| league points | 54.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |