← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 60% | 64% | 1.64 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 14% | 14% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bonucci · AC Milan |
| 38' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ricardo Rodríguez · AC Milan |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lucas Biglia · AC Milan |
| 79' | ⚽ | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Riccardo Montolivo · AC Milan |
| 87' | ⚽ | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1369.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1920.52 | 1675.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.45 | 3.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| league points | 75.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.59 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | 1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.09 |
| state index | 1.76 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |