← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 52% | 52% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Spal win | 18% | 19% | 5.31 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟥 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Gianluca Lapadula · Genoa CFC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 61' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 64' | 🟨 | Andrea Bertolacci · Genoa CFC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Filippo Costa · Spal |
| 72' | 🟨 | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Adel Taarabt · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 26 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.29 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.40 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 150.00 |
| 1216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1501.08 | 1512.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.68 | 27.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |