← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 63% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.16 | fair |
| Crotone win | 14% | 22% | 7.20 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 16' | 🟨 | Federico Ricci · Crotone |
| 18' | 🟨 | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
| 18' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Crotone |
| 30' | 🟨 | Sebastián Cristóforo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 32' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 48' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Crotone |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Crotone |
| 57' | 🟥 | Marco Capuano · Crotone |
| 62' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 78' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Olivera · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 303.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1725.51 | 1569.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.71 | -1.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 41.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |