← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 42% | 46% | 2.34 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 31' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · Chievo |
| 58' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 62' | ⚽ | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Vasco Regini · Sampdoria |
| 79' | ⚽ | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 1277.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1566.28 | 1677.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.54 | -34.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 25.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 27.72 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |