← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 39% | 40% | 2.52 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Joel Obi · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days |
| 1034.00 |
| 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1494.20 | 1588.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.04 | -24.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |