← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 63% | 62% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.66 | value: +6% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 16% | 15% | 6.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Antonio Santurro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 72' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 76' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Palacio · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days |
| 912.00 |
| 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1508.44 | 1806.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.27 | 19.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 34.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |