← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 68% | 70% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.72 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 12% | 12% | 8.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Bram Nuytinck · Udinese Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Atalanta BC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · Atalanta BC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 668.00 | 546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1814.64 | 1638.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.97 | -41.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 44.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.95 | 27.23 |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |