← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 71% | 61% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 5.01 | value: +14% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 10% | 16% | 10.11 | value: +61% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · Atalanta BC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Simone Calvano · Hellas Verona FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · Atalanta BC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alex Ferrari · Hellas Verona FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 24 |
| 0 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 655.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1567.49 | 1804.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.62 | -10.24 |
| eye test v1 | -1.52 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 26.20 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |