← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 36% | 33% | 2.74 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 34% | 41% | 2.85 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 71' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Torino FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 86' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Cyril Théréau · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days |
| 76.00 |
| 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1599.84 | 1606.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.49 | 16.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |