← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 49% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 24% | 29% | 4.08 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 625.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1585.11 | 1683.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.46 | -16.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.92 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 44.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |