← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 79% | 75% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 20% | 6.08 | value: +24% |
| Genoa CFC win | 5% | 5% | 19.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Diego Laxalt · Genoa CFC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 75' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 76' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 1021.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1855.26 | 1502.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.94 | 28.49 |
| eye test v1 | 1.36 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| league points | 70.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.23 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.28 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |