← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 70% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.68 | fair |
| Chievo win | 10% | 7% | 10.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 17' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
| 34' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 47' | 🟨 | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 52' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 55' | 🟨 | Paweł Jaroszyński · Chievo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lucas Biglia · AC Milan |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
| 82' | ⚽ | André Silva · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 137.00 | 1264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1768.53 | 1569.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.91 | -19.07 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | -1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 47.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 32.10 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |