← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 74% | 78% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.70 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 9% | 7% | 10.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 16' | ⚽ | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 25' | 🟨 | Wallace · SS Lazio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sebastien De Maio · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Bastos · SS Lazio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Antonio Mirante · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 716.00 |
| 899.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1705.16 | 1502.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.69 | 2.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| league points | 53.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |