← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 59% | 65% | 1.65 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.02 | fair |
| Crotone win | 16% | 12% | 5.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 75' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| coach days | 625.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -3.40 |
| 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1474.23 | 1800.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.43 | 17.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| league points | 24.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.40 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.65 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |