← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento win | 42% | 28% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.33 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 29% | 47% | 3.34 | value: +56% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Leandro Castán · Cagliari Calcio |
| 38' | 🟨 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 46' | ⚽ | Enrico Brignola · Benevento |
| 50' | 🟨 | Enrico Brignola · Benevento |
| 66' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Benevento |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days |
| 168.00 |
| 1021.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1406.90 | 1484.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.83 | 5.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.37 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |