← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 44% | 42% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.24 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Claud Adjapong · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 29' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 42' | ⚽ (og) | Ali Adnan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 44' | ⚽ | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Antonín Barák · Udinese Calcio |
| 74' | ⚽ | Stefano Sensi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 532.00 |
| 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1538.97 | 1476.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.75 | -24.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 33.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |