← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 73% | 83% | 1.34 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 19% | 11% | 5.00 | fair |
| Spal win | 8% | 6% | 12.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 60' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 66' | 🟨 | Filippo Costa · Spal |
| 69' | 🟨 | Douglas Costa · Juventus FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Everton Luiz · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days |
| 1202.00 |
| 1355.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1504.98 | 1928.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.47 | 23.11 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 24.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 2.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.33 | 1.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |