← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 68% | 72% | 1.44 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.30 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 10% | 10% | 10.25 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · Atalanta BC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 79' | 🟥 | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Asamoah · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1352.00 |
| 651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1923.54 | 1694.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.28 | -10.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| league points | 71.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.63 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.73 |
| state index | 1.97 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |