← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 47% | 53% | 2.10 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.36 | fair |
| Spal win | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Antonino Ragusa · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 27' | ⚽ | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Khouma Babacar · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 35' | 🟨 | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 38' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 57' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| coach days | 130.00 | 1196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1477.24 | 1504.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.20 | -10.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| state index | -1.13 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |