← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 79% | 87% | 1.23 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 16% | 9% | 6.22 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 5% | 4% | 19.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Giorgio Chiellini · Juventus FC |
| 19' | 🟨 | Gabriele Angella · Udinese Calcio |
| 20' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1349.00 | 526.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1921.33 | 1541.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.40 | -15.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.75 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| league points | 68.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.62 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | 2.03 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |