← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 68% | 75% | 1.43 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.76 | fair |
| Benevento win | 11% | 7% | 8.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Vitor Hugo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 49' | 🟨 | Guilherme · Benevento |
| 54' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 62' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 72' | 🟨 | Cristiano Lombardi · Benevento |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Del Pinto · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 283.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1602.86 | 1410.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.21 | -5.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 35.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |