← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 64% | 54% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.45 | value: +12% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 15% | 20% | 6.69 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 27' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Luca Ceppitelli · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Artur Ioniță · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days | 1014.00 | 709.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1595.70 | 1796.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.68 | 7.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 25.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.29 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |