← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 21% | 24% | 4.67 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Felipe Avenatti · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Simone Romagnoli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days |
| 892.00 |
| 648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1508.75 | 1687.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.62 | -13.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| league points | 33.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 16.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.73 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |