← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 48% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 24% | 29% | 4.10 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Hellas Verona FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Antonio Caracciolo · Hellas Verona FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Massimo Gobbi · Chievo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ryder Matos · Hellas Verona FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Deian Boldor · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Franco Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dario Dainelli · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 647.00 | 1256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1485.61 | 1463.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.84 | -13.38 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -1.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.40 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.56 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |