← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 40% | 43% | 2.44 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.24 | value: +6% |
| SS Lazio win | 30% | 25% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Juventus FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 701.00 | 1341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1708.82 | 1915.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.79 | 17.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 52.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.74 | 2.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |