← Serie A 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 74% | 74% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.10 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 7% | 12% | 13.80 | value: +70% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 31' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 42' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 61' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 71' | 🟨 | Leandro Castán · Cagliari Calcio |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.20 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days |
| 1001.00 |
| 1001.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1485.70 | 1875.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.41 | -4.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.40 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| league points | 25.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 3.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.33 | 1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |