← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 62% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.22 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 15% | 18% | 6.51 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Torino FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Bruno Petković · Hellas Verona FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alex Ferrari · Hellas Verona FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rômulo · Hellas Verona FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Torino FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 634.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1473.19 | 1619.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.27 | 13.52 |
| eye test v1 | -1.51 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |