← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jens Stryger Larsen · Udinese Calcio |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nicola Murru · Sampdoria |
| 35' | ⚽ | Matías Silvestre · Sampdoria |
| 62' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 83' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Sampdoria |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Matías Silvestre · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 604.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1600.42 | 1548.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.70 | -16.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 41.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 25.28 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |